Bitcoin Daily Direction Predictor
Will tomorrow's close be higher or lower than today's? Data through the 2026-11-02 close (UTC).
Live record: 22 graded predictions. Model 31.8% correct; always guessing up would have scored 40.9%.
Backtest (2022-10-19 to 2026-10-09, 1,452 days, retraining every day): model 50.3%, always guessing up 50.0%. That gap is well within chance, so expect today's call to be no better than a coin flip. Brier score: 0.252 (lower is better; always saying 50% scores 0.250; what's a Brier score?).
Running total of the model's lead over always guessing up. Each graded day moves the line up one step when the model was right and always-up was wrong, down one step when it was the other way around, and not at all when they agreed. Above the dashed zero line, the model is ahead. Blue is the backtest and orange is the live record. No predictions were logged for 1 day between them (starting 2026-10-11), so the two lines are not joined.
| Day | Predicted | Chance of up | Actual | Result | Logged (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | UP | 51.3% | pending | … | 2026-11-03 06:32 |
| 2026-11-02 | UP | 52.0% | DOWN | ✗ | 2026-11-02 05:50 |
| 2026-11-01 | UP | 50.8% | UP | ✓ | 2026-11-01 05:50 |
| 2026-10-31 | UP | 61.4% | UP | ✓ | 2026-10-31 05:23 |
| 2026-10-30 | UP | 58.4% | DOWN | ✗ | 2026-10-30 05:34 |
| 2026-10-29 | DOWN | 44.2% | DOWN | ✓ | 2026-10-29 05:35 |
| 2026-10-28 | DOWN | 44.6% | UP | ✗ | 2026-10-28 05:26 |
| 2026-10-27 | UP | 50.2% | UP | ✓ | 2026-10-27 04:51 |
| 2026-10-26 | UP | 53.8% | DOWN | ✗ | 2026-10-26 04:32 |
| 2026-10-25 | UP | 53.9% | DOWN | ✗ | 2026-10-25 04:29 |
| 2026-10-24 | UP | 52.5% | DOWN | ✗ | 2026-10-24 04:25 |
| 2026-10-23 | UP | 54.3% | DOWN | ✗ | 2026-10-23 04:35 |
| 2026-10-22 | DOWN | 47.4% | DOWN | ✓ | 2026-10-22 04:30 |
| 2026-10-21 | DOWN | 46.1% | UP | ✗ | 2026-10-21 04:31 |
Each night a logistic regression model is retrained from scratch on every finished day of Bitcoin history (daily candles from Coinbase, UTC days, back to October 2021). It sees six backward-looking facts about each day: returns over 1, 3, and 7 days, 7-day volatility, volume relative to its 7-day average, and the day of the week. It predicts whether the next day's close will be higher than today's. The backtest retrains on every day using only the days before it. Code and full write-up on GitHub.
"Up" means that day's UTC close was higher than the previous day's. Each prediction is logged before its day finishes, and the code never overwrites a logged prediction. Every nightly update is also a public commit in the GitHub repository, so the logging times can be checked against its history. Only finished days are used. Built for learning, not financial advice.
Updated 2026-11-03 06:32 UTC.